Social media’s first big battle

Barack Obama 2008 presidential candidate web site home pageThe November Presidential election will be the first large-scale referendum on social media’s ability to create durable public images. For the first time, images constructed through Web sites, blogs, e-mail, podcasts, etc., will face off against television, print and radio advertising specifically designed to smudge those images on a national scale. Will social media blunt mass media’s impact, or does mass-media carpet bombing still control public opinion at the national scale?

This battle will play out in a political arena first, but it has obvious implications for business, individuals and advocacy groups. The operative question – whether a candidate or individual can John McCain presidental candidate 2008 web sitedefine themselves in positive terms through social media before a negative one is forced on them from the outside – could apply just as easily to a company facing prosecution or a hostile takeover bid. Presidential politics just happen to provide the biggest public laboratory.

Substitute “company” for “candidate” and the same basic principles apply in business as in politics. At the height of the Tyco scandal in 2002, when CEO Dennis Kozlowski’s fetish for buying $6,000 shower curtains on the company dime was making the rounds, Tyco was getting creamed in the media and the stock market. Yet even as Kozlowski’s excesses fueled the fire, Tyco was still a rock-solid company. It had assets, revenues, and a vast portfolio of products whose value dwarfed the sums Kozlowski and CFO Mark Schwartz looted from its coffers. Yet it was lumped in with certified basket cases like Enron and WorldCom, which turned out to be less stable than the neighborhood lemonade stand.  

 With today’s social media tools, Tyco could have seeded facts with bloggers that would have filtered out to investors and the mainstream press. The image of a fundamentally sound company with a few rogue executives would have insulated it from the full brunt of shareholder uncertainty that eroded its value during the Kozlowski period. My theory is that social media personae cannot prevent mass market media images from knocking a few points from a company’s value or a candidate’s polling numbers, at least temporarily. It can, however, limit the damage, shorten the bad times, and help the company recover sooner. Until now, mass media images have appeared on a largely blank canvas. In the social media era, they’ll have to compete for space. November will be the test of how much competition social media offers. 

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